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Prediction: Jesse Jr Will Win

Yes this race is on everyone’s “race to watch” and yes Jesse Jr has been “dogged by troubles… whatever.  Here is a prediction for March 2o: Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr, who everyone says is in big election jeopardy, will win… again.  Incumbents win. There’s nothing going on with his Democratic primary challenger, former Rep. Debbie Halvorson, to indicate she can take Jackson down.  Yes he has a terminal ethics case (who doesn’t…?) and there is clearly an anti-incumbent mood and an anti-Congress feeling in the country.  But when it comes down to individual races in individual districts across America we are likely to see the same thing we’ve seen in the past: The incumbent winning.  We hear this every two years.  Sometimes it happens and most of the time it does not. Statistics show us the incumbent in most races holds a huge advantage.  Jackson’s race is not to be confused with John Conyers’ or Laura Richardson’s.  Richardson is in serious trouble.  Conyers could be as well — but let’s wait and see.